New researches in Islamic humanities studies

New researches in Islamic humanities studies

Strategic foresight of the tourism industry with an interdisciplinary approach

Document Type : Original Article

Author
M.A. in Tourism Management (Tourism Development Planning) Faculty of Tourism, University of Science and Culture, Tehran, Iran
10.22034/api.2026.2085631.1667
Abstract
Objective: This study aims to develop an interdisciplinary and foresight-oriented framework for analyzing the future of the tourism industry with an emphasis on sustainable development.
Method: The present study employed a qualitative approach utilizing grounded theory to analyze 20 semi-structured interviews conducted with experts in the fields of tourism, sustainable development, and technology. In accordance with the grounded theory methodology, the data analysis process systematically involved open, axial, and selective coding. The management and analysis of qualitative data were performed using MAXQDA software.
Results: The findings indicate that the future of the tourism industry is shaped by three key axes: "Technology and Innovation," "Sustainability and Resilience," and "Culture and Management." Factors characterized by high uncertainty such as tourist behavior, economic resilience, and environmental impacts are identified as critical future junctures, underscoring the necessity of strategic scenario planning to navigate plausible futures.
Conclusions: The proposed conceptual model enables policymakers and planners to design flexible, resilient, and sustainable strategies. This framework can contribute to the advancement of sustainable and smart tourism development in Iran and other developing countries.
Keywords
Subjects

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